The Florida Panthers’ late-season victory has added a layer of uncertainty to one of the franchise’s most pivotal offseason decisions. With their 2026 first-round pick top-10 protected as part of the Seth Jones trade with the Chicago Blackhawks, the Panthers now face the prospect of relying on the NHL Draft Lottery to retain their selection. If the pick falls outside the top 10, it immediately transfers to Chicago — leaving Florida without a first-rounder in a draft class loaded with elite talent.
Current Lottery Position and Odds
As of April 14, the Panthers sit 8th in the NHL Draft Lottery standings with a .512 points percentage and a 6.0% chance of landing the first overall pick. While Vancouver holds the best odds at 25.5%, Florida’s position is precarious.
Here’s how the teams surrounding the Panthers stack up:
| Rank | Team | Points % | No. 1 Pick Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Seattle Kraken | .488 | 7.5% |
| 7 | Winnipeg Jets | .506 | 6.5% |
| 8 | Florida Panthers* | .512 | 6.0% |
| 9 | San Jose Sharks | .519 | 5.0% |
| 10 | St. Louis Blues | .519 | 3.5% |
| 11 | New Jersey Devils | .530 | 3.0% |
*Florida’s pick is top-10 protected.
The Panthers needed to finish among the eight worst teams in the league to guarantee retaining their pick, as up to two teams behind them can leapfrog via the lottery draw. Their final-game win now risks pushing them into the 9th or 10th spot, where they’d need favorable lottery results to stay in the top 10.
The Trade Details and What’s at Stake
Florida’s precarious draft position is the result of their 2025 Trade Deadline deal with Chicago, which brought defenseman Seth Jones to the Panthers in exchange for their 2026 first-round pick and goaltender Spencer Knight. The pick is top-10 protected, but the protection comes with strings attached.
The Protection Clause:
- If the pick lands in the top 10: Florida retains it, and their 2027 first-round pick will transfer to Chicago instead.
- If the pick falls to 11th or lower: Chicago receives Florida’s 2026 first-round pick immediately, leaving the Panthers without a first-round selection this year.
The Panthers’ final-game win has complicated this scenario. By finishing closer to the 9th or 10th spot in the standings, Florida’s chances of keeping their pick hinge on the lottery balls falling their way.
Draft Implications
The stakes couldn’t be higher for the Panthers. The 2026 draft class is headlined by elite prospects like Ivar Stenberg, Gavin McKenna, and Keaton Verhoeff, making a top-10 pick a potentially franchise-altering asset.
For Florida, retaining this selection could be critical to reloading after a season plagued by injuries and inconsistency. With Seth Jones now anchoring the blue line, the Panthers need young talent to complement their core and build toward sustained success in the 2026-27 campaign.
What’s Next?
The NHL Draft Lottery date remains unconfirmed, but the stakes are clear. Florida’s final-game win means their lottery position is more tenuous than it needed to be, and the team will now rely on luck to keep their pick.
If the lottery balls fall their way, the Panthers could walk away with a top-10 talent capable of reshaping the roster. If not, their pick heads to Chicago, and Florida will be left navigating an offseason without the draft capital they were counting on.
The Panthers’ late-season effort may have complicated things, but the lottery will ultimately decide whether it was worth it. For now, all eyes are on the draw.
